Advantage Congress

EDITORIAL COMMENT- THE TIMES OF INDIA

The Congress is a clear winner in this round of state elections. The party, perhaps to the surprise of its supporters, has won three of the five states where results have been declared. It won Rajasthan from the BJP and survived anti-incumbency fears in Delhi to fetch a third consecutive term in office. The BJP has retained Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh but lost a significant number of seats to the Congress.

The Congress also managed to sweep aside the Mizo National Front in Mizoram, which had been in office for two terms. The BJP may now have to rethink its electoral strategy and introspect whether it projected the right kind of leadership before the electorate.

These five states contribute 73 MPs to the Lok Sabha and the BJP won 55 of them in the 2004 general election. However, assembly election trends need not necessarily reflect in the general election, expected in April-May next year.

State elections have their own dynamics. Local factors as varied as the selection of candidates, governance issues, and the performance of small political parties influence results in states. Things play out differently in a general election. And, even though the Bahujan Samaj Party bagged a few seats in Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, it was more or less a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP in those four states. The general election, however, will once again be a contest between two coalitions; the one which has the correct allies will probably win the day.

Significantly, Rajasthan and Delhi voted after the Mumbai carnage and both opted for the Congress. In these states, the BJP ran an aggressive campaign on terrorism and even took out advertisements against the Congress style of governance. That strategy may have backfired. Sure, terrorism is a major concern but people seem to have refused to read party politics into it. They recognise terrorism, especially the kind witnessed in Mumbai, as a war waged on the nation.

During war, people rally around the government to fight the threat from outside. In this case, people clearly identified Pakistan behind the Mumbai attack. In such circumstances, targeting the government was perhaps seen as a move to weaken it. And, by the way, the high polling in these states, despite the anger against inefficient administrators, could also be seen as an act of the people’s trust in the political system, warts and all.

The Congress can heave a sigh of relief that it has rediscovered winning just ahead of a general election. The party has lost at least 10 state elections since 2004. But the BJP should be worried about the turn of events, especially because Rajasthan, MP, Chhattisgarh and Delhi are among its strongholds. A restive second rung may begin to question the current national leadership, which opted for a focus on terrorism a negative tactic which didn’t work. It may be time for the BJP to go back to the drawing board.